Monkey + Darts + Time

Warren Buffett is an investing legend, of the “buy and hold” variety. His annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders is full of his folksy wit and wisdom. Here’s my favorite part of this year’s letter, which came out Saturday

The tens of millions of other investors and speculators in the United States and elsewhere have a wide variety of equity choices to fit their tastes. They will find CEOs and market gurus with enticing ideas. If they want price targets, managed earnings and “stories,” they will not lack suitors. “Technicians” will confidently instruct them as to what some wiggles on a chart portend for a stock’s next move. The calls for action will never stop.

Many of those investors, I should add, will do quite well. After all, ownership of stocks is very much a “positive-sum” game. Indeed, a patient and level-headed monkey, who constructs a portfolio by throwing 50 darts at a board listing all of the S&P 500, will – over time – enjoy dividends and capital gains, just as long as it never gets tempted to make changes in its original “selections.”

Productive assets such as farms, real estate and, yes, business ownership produce wealth – lots of it. Most owners of such properties will be rewarded. All that’s required is the passage of time, an inner calm, ample diversification and a minimization of transactions and fees. Still, investors must never forget that their expenses are Wall Street’s income. And, unlike my monkey, Wall Streeters do not work for peanuts.

It’s easy to focus on the monkey and the darts… but cagey ol’ Warren also baked in some key principles of his billionaire success: patience, level-headedness, inner calm, diversification and minimizing fees.

As Buffett notes, “the calls for action will never stop”… but many times the best move is no action at all. Your patience will be rewarded.

36 years ago, you could buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway for $1,860. Now that same share is worth $377,835.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to find 50 darts and a monkey.

Turning the corner

Coronavirus case counts are declining.

Source: New York Times

The vaccination rollout has hit plenty of potholes, but people are getting a shot (or two) in the arm, and a third approved vaccine will be available soon.

The snow is melting. Daylight savings is two weeks away.

Spring is on the horizon too.

After our endless year of desperation and frustration, and our long winter of depression and despair, perhaps hope is finally on the way.

Keep singing, hope… it’s music to our soul.

I’m Sincerely Flattered

If Oscar Wilde was correct:

I should be feeling very flattered right now. And pretty great too.

Three weeks ago, I wrote a post about the mental health perils of the coronavirus lockdown, and encouraged you (and by “you” I mean the four readers of this blog… Hi Steve! Hi Jeanne! Hi Jacqui! Hi Tim!) to reach out to four acquaintances just to say ‘hi.’

The mental health crisis is the silent pandemic. What can we do when we’re still in lockdown? We can’t hang out with a bunch of strangers in a bar (unless you’re in Sturgis for the Harley Rally – anything goes!) But we can at least reach out to a few of our casual acquaintances. Whip out that smart phone, scroll through your contacts to find four folks with whom you haven’t connected in a while, and shoot each of them a quick text. Just to say howdy.

A really smart guy, three weeks ago

OK, now let’s fast-forward to yesterday (seems oxymoronic, but just stay with me here). Ryan Estis is one of the many “achieve your dreams” gurus making fat bank off corporate speaking and consulting gigs. (His website sayeth: Ryan Estis is a sales and leadership expert preparing companies and individual contributors to embrace change and achieve breakthrough performance.) And guess what he talked about in his weekly “Prepare for Impact” email newsletter yesterday? Pretty much the same damn things I covered three weeks ago:

  1. How the pandemic was creating a loneliness epidemic.
  2. Encouraging his readers to reach out to three people via text.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

Son of a biscuit-eater… Ryan Estis stole my idea!

Ryan Estis using his talons to grab the ideas of bloggers…

I’m not upset. I’m flattered… and now I realize I’m just a sport coat, a checkered shirt and a wireless mic away from being a “leadership expert.”

(I actually do like Ryan Estis’ stuff. Obvi – I subscribe to his newsletter. His most famous presentation is at the bottom of this post. )

Hey Ryan, hit me up in the comments, and I’ll let you know my home address so you can start sending royalties my way.

One word

Once upon a time, there was a great future in plastics.

The graduate. Plastics from Veaceslav on Vimeo.

My wife’s grandfather had this model train car in his collection:

A bright yellow car with “Plastics” plastered on it. It couldn’t be louder or prouder unless it had a few exclamation points.

Now, plastics are threatening our future…

But there’s still hope. Boylan Slat, a Dutch inventor, was just 18 when he started Ocean Cleanup back in 2013. He’s trying to tackle the complex challenge of cleaning up the ocean garbage. These days, he’s also working to remove it from the 10 rivers that contribute the most garbage to the patch.

We can do our part, a bit further upstream… by reducing our use. Weaning ourselves from bottled water is a great place to start.

Source: https://insinkerator.emerson.com/en-gb/blog/environmental-cost-of-bottled-water

Bailing out on plastic bags will help too. A lot of cities have banned single-use plastic bags, or are charging a fee if you use them.

These relatively simple daily changes may seem like a drop in the ocean. But maybe that’s the point.

We’re all songwriters

Jeff Tweedy, a songwriter and musician best known as the leader of the band Wilco , has written a ton of great songs. He’s also written a couple of books. His most recent is How To Write One Song.

If you aspire to be a songwriter, there’s plenty of useful info in the book. And if your goal is merely a single song, the same holds true. (Tweedy is wisely lowering the “barriers to entry” with his book’s title. Writing a single song seems much less daunting than becoming a songwriter.)

But even if you never want to put pen to paper and create a song, you’ll still find plenty of creative fodder in Tweedy’s breezy and engaging book.

It’s not really about songwriting, it’s about creativity, in all its forms. The songwriting angle is really just an interesting construct, a device to get us to embrace our inner creative kid and ignore the critics, both internal and external.

I love that advice. Seems like we’ve heard similar suggestions before, right? Ignore the haters. Do what you love. Do it out of love, not out of a search for approval or fame or fortune. Trust the process, don’t worry about the end result.

It seems so simple, yet it’s difficult to put in to practice. Because we’re scared to be vulnerable.

Here’s the money quote:

I’m convinced the dreams we have for ourselves go unattained from a lack of permission more than any deficit in talent or desire. And I’m going to stress that when I say “permission,” I mean the permission we withhold or give ourselves to pursue those dreams.

jEFF tWEEDY IN hOW TO wRITE oNE sONG

Check out Jeff’s book… then give yourself a little more permission. One song at a time.

Sweet dreams!

Jay Bennett-era Wilco was the best.